Hello everyone,

Two months ago, I started sharing my sports betting picks with the world. If you want to read about how my picks performed over their first month, please read “Jerry’s Picks – Recap #1“.

The purpose of this article, as well as that of all the “recap” articles that preceded and will follow it, is to maintain transparency. My goal with everything I do with Sports Thoughts – the articles, the podcast, and whatever else that may come in the future – is to share my honest opinions, thoughts, and experiences regarding sports and betting. That includes being candid about my picks that win and my picks that lose.

So let’s take a big-picture look at how my picks have performed over the second month (September 1, 2018 – September 30, 2018). Again, all following calculations have been done under the initial rule I set for this process (every bet I make will be recorded as a separate 1-unit-risked wager, regardless of how much I personally risked on each bet).

The Good

  • NCAAF picks went 19-8 for +12.25 units (+46.22% ROI) – told you guys in my last recap article that I’d turn this around 😉
  • Soccer picks went 13-7-1 for +5.05 units (+24.03% ROI) – ditto 🙂
  • NFL picks went 34-29-3 for +2.25 units (+3.44% ROI)

The Bad

  • The spreadsheet finished its second month in a small net negative (-1.83 units and -0.78% ROI).
  • MLB picks went 51-65-2 for -19.14 units (-16.22% ROI). Just a horrendous 30 days of betting on baseball for me, but I’m also optimistic that this will change for the better going forward as we head into the MLB postseason.
    • pregame ML picks went 20-22 for -7.06 units (-16.81% ROI)
    • pregame Spread picks went 22-29 for -8.65 units (-16.96% ROI)
    • pregame Team Total picks went 4-8 for -4.69 units (-39.06% ROI)
  • As I mentioned in my first recap, I seem to be extremely gifted at losing money betting on Tennis and the WNBA. This continued this month (1-2 in Tennis for -1.23 units and 0-1 in WNBA for -1 unit) albeit in a tiny and utterly meaningless sample size.
  • After placing five extremely reckless and degenerate MLB wagers on “Team X to score first” that went 1-4 for -3.02 units (-60.39% ROI) in month one, I placed none of them in month 2! But wait, I swapped those for five awful football teaser bets which, of course, went 0-5 for -5 units (-100% ROI) 😂

The Ups and Downs (or the Down and Up)

This is a good time to remind everyone that 1) small winning and losing streaks are perfectly normal and will occur and 2) they’re virtually meaningless in the grand scheme of things. With that said, they’re fun to look at purely for entertainment purposes.

I mentioned above that the spreadsheet finished the month in a small net negative. But even more interestingly, it was only ever positive for its first four days in the whole month! Then it was all downhill and trying to dig myself out of the hole from there 🤦🏻‍♂️

Here’s a graph of my picks’ profit-to-date for the month (high = +2.50; low = -17.10):

Unit Sizes / Confidence Levels

In my last recap article, I introduced my new confidence levels system, which I began implementing on 9/5/2018. As a refresher:

I’m perfectly willing to accompany each of my picks with a confidence level based on a three-tiered scale (gotta use thought bubble emojis for Sports Thoughts, of course):

💭 = tiny / fun / degenerate play

💭💭 = I-see-value / somewhat confident play

💭💭💭 = highly confident play

I think it’s better if I better clarify what each of these tiers mean, since there seems to have been some confusion given some of the feedback I’ve gotten.

  • In NO way are the bubble emojis equivalent to precise unit sizes. One bubble doesn’t equal “1 unit”, two bubbles doesn’t equal “2 units”, and three bubbles doesn’t equal “3 units”.
  • I don’t know how I can be more clear about this: picks accompanied with one bubble are TINY personal wagers. They are for FUN. They may be DEGENERATE.
  • Three-bubble picks are wagers that I use my legitimate bankroll for. I’m relatively highly confident in them, but they are NOT locks by any means.
  • Two bubbles are used for every other wager I make that don’t fit under one or three bubbles. Maybe I’m betting a small amount that is far from “large” but is larger than “tiny”. Maybe it’s a bet that I think has value but not enough to make a legitimate play on.
  • In terms of relative actual unit sizes, a 💭💭 pick may be anywhere from 3-100x the wager amount of that of a 💭 pick.

Again, as I stated in my last recap article, I place an extremely large number of small wagers and a very small number of large wagers. There’s a reason that out of the 235 picks I made in the month of September, I only had 23 picks accompanied by 💭💭💭. They went 13-8-2 for +2.95 units (+12.82% ROI).

(I made a separate “Picks Analysis” tab on my spreadsheet that literally breaks all of this stuff down as well. Check that out if you’re interested.)

Final Words

I’d like to finish up this first recap article by echoing a few wise words written by my buddy Kieran aka Berryhorse:

  • Everything above and all the content we put out on Sports Thoughts is presented for informational purposes – not for actionable advice.
  • Please remember to always maintain discipline and proper bankroll management.
  • If you are risking so much that your mood swings because of a losing day or week, your bankroll is likely too large of a percent of your net worth and it should decrease and/or your unit size is too large of a percent of your bankroll and it should decrease.
  • If you are relying on some internet stranger to make life-altering amounts of money for you, you should likely reconsider whether or not you should even be managing a sports betting fund at all.

Jerry

loves sports, games of skill, game theory, psychology, blockchain tech, and many other things.

2 Comments

JJ · October 4, 2018 at 10:31 PM

No one Provided a comment. Very interesting

Joe Lo Bello · October 19, 2018 at 6:52 AM

Keep it up Jerry shits turning around

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