Hello everyone,

Three months ago, I started sharing my sports betting picks with the world. If you want to read about how my picks performed over their first month, please read “Jerry’s Picks – Recap #1“. For my second month and an explanation of my confidence-levels system (what the 💭 emojis mean): Jerry’s Picks – Recap #2.

The purpose of this article, as well as that of all the “recap” articles that preceded and will follow it, is to maintain transparency. My goal with everything I do with Sports Thoughts – the articles, the podcast, and whatever else that may come in the future – is to share my honest opinions, thoughts, and experiences regarding sports and betting. That includes being candid about my picks that win and my picks that lose.

So let’s take a big-picture look at how my picks have performed over the third month (October 1, 2018 – October 31, 2018). Again, all following calculations have been done under the initial rule I set for this process (every bet I make will be recorded as a separate 1-unit-risked wager, regardless of how much I personally risked on each bet).

The Good

  • The spreadsheet finished its third month in a small net positive (+1.92 units and +1.39% ROI)
  • Soccer picks went 10-2-0 for +5.27 units (+43.88% ROI)
  • NFL picks went 20-16-1 for +2.25 units (+5.93% ROI)
  • I stayed away from losing money on Tennis this month 😏

The Bad

  • NCAAF picks went 7-7-0 for -0.70 units (-4.99% ROI)
  • MLB picks went 15-19-3 for -4.66 units (-12.61% ROI)
    • Not a great MLB playoffs for me; contributors to the losses included the Chicago Cubs, the Oakland Athletics, and the Houston Astros
    • Side note: my Astros futures also came up empty this year, which wasn’t ideal
  • NBA picks went 20-17-0 for -0.24 units (-0.64% ROI)

Unit Sizes / Confidence Levels Analysis

  • 💭 picks went 40-37-1 for -1.09 units (-1.40% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 2-3-0 for -1.20 units (-24.00% ROI)
    • MLB: 8-10-0 for -1.07 units (-5.92% ROI)
    • NFL: 13-10-1 for +1.73 units (+7.21% ROI)
    • NBA: 8-12-0 for -5.42 units (-27.11% ROI)
    • Soccer: 9-2-0 for +4.87 units (+44.23% ROI)
  • 💭💭 picks went 24-19-2 for +0.59 units (+1.31% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 2-4-0 for -2.15 units (-35.79% ROI)
    • MLB: 5-7-0 for -3.34 units (-23.84% ROI)
    • NFL: 6-4-0 for +1.16 units (+11.57% ROI)
    • NBA: 10-4-0 for +4.52 units (+32.27% ROI)
    • Soccer: 1-0-0 for +0.40 units (+40.00% ROI)
  • 💭💭💭 picks went 9-5-1 for +2.42 units (+16.13% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 3-0-0 for +2.65 units (+88.29% ROI)
    • MLB: 2-2-0 for -0.26 units (-5.21% ROI)
    • NFL: 2-2-0 for -0.64 units (-15.89% ROI)
    • NBA: 2-1-0 for +0.67 units (+22.22% ROI)

Summary Of First Three Months

My picks have gone 258-249-20 overall for +0.53 units (0.10% ROI):

  • 💭 picks have gone 83-81-3 for -1.41 units
  • 💭💭 picks have gone 78-70-4 for -4.61 units
  • 💭💭💭 picks have gone 22-13-3 for +5.37 units
  • (I didn’t implement my confidence-levels system for my first month; those picks went 75-85-10 for +1.18 units)

All in all, this picks-sharing thing is going as I expected it would:

  • Disregarding unit sizes, I’m winning just over half of my wagers at just about a breakeven return.
  • To be honest, I’m kind of surprised my 💭 wagers haven’t lost more than 1.41 units. These are the ones that have historically dragged my degenerate fund down.
  • Most of the wagers in the 💭💭 are relatively small too, but there are a good portion of them that are decently-sized as well. I expect these plays to eventually end up in the positive. These are the ones that have historically saved my degenerate fund from its doom.
  • 💭💭💭 picks are the wagers I make with my serious bankroll, and they’re hitting at a 58% clip and returning +14.13% on investment. That’s slightly higher than my historical betting performance, so I’m expecting a little regression moving forward. I’ll be happy if this continues though 🙂
    • If you’re wondering about how my 💭💭💭 picks have performed by sport:
      • NCAAF: 7-2-0 for +4.29 units (+47.62% ROI)
      • MLB: 6-4-1 for +0.85 units (+7.75% ROI)
      • NFL: 7-6-0 for -0.44 units (-2.91% ROI)
      • NBA: 2-1-0 for +0.67 units (+22.22% ROI)

Random Thoughts

  • The way I’m tracking all of my wagers at a flat units-risked for this exercise has made me realize that I place a TON of fucking bets – and the vast majority of them are ill-advised. In fact, a whopping 89.36% (319 of 357) of all of my wagers of my bets are of the 💭 and 💭💭 variety. Brilliant.
  • (Armed with this realization, will I stop and become more disciplined and cut out my 💭 and 💭💭 wagers? Nah, not a chance!)
  • I’m kind of pissed at myself that I lost so many bets on baseball from August-October. Now that the season is over, that ugly red negative-ROI row is going to be on my summary sheet for months (at least). Ditto for the WNBA.
  • Tennis looks ugly right now as well, but just wait until I’m back in my mood to wager on racquet sports. Will that row ever turn green? Stay tuned.


I’d like to finish up this first recap article by echoing a few wise words written by my buddy Kieran aka Berryhorse:

  • Everything above and all the content we put out on Sports Thoughts is presented for informational purposes – not for actionable advice.
  • Please remember to always maintain discipline and proper bankroll management.
  • If you are risking so much that your mood swings because of a losing day or week, your bankroll is likely too large of a percent of your net worth and it should decrease and/or your unit size is too large of a percent of your bankroll and it should decrease.
  • If you are relying on some internet stranger to make life-altering amounts of money for you, you should likely reconsider whether or not you should even be managing a sports betting fund at all.


loves sports, games of skill, game theory, psychology, blockchain tech, and many other things.

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