Hello everyone,

Three months ago, I started sharing my sports betting picks with the world. If you want to read about how my picks performed over their first month, please read “Jerry’s Picks – Recap #1“. For my second month and an explanation of my confidence-levels system (what the 💭 emojis mean): Jerry’s Picks – Recap #2.

The purpose of this article, as well as that of all the “recap” articles that preceded and will follow it, is to maintain transparency. My goal with everything I do with Sports Thoughts – the articles, the podcast, and whatever else that may come in the future – is to share my honest opinions, thoughts, and experiences regarding sports and betting. That includes being candid about my picks that win and my picks that lose.

So let’s take a big-picture look at how my picks have performed over the third month (October 1, 2018 – October 31, 2018). Again, all following calculations have been done under the initial rule I set for this process (every bet I make will be recorded as a separate 1-unit-risked wager, regardless of how much I personally risked on each bet).

The Good

  • The spreadsheet finished its third month in a small net positive (+1.92 units and +1.39% ROI)
  • Soccer picks went 10-2-0 for +5.27 units (+43.88% ROI)
  • NFL picks went 20-16-1 for +2.25 units (+5.93% ROI)
  • I stayed away from losing money on Tennis this month 😏

The Bad

  • NCAAF picks went 7-7-0 for -0.70 units (-4.99% ROI)
  • MLB picks went 15-19-3 for -4.66 units (-12.61% ROI)
    • Not a great MLB playoffs for me; contributors to the losses included the Chicago Cubs, the Oakland Athletics, and the Houston Astros
    • Side note: my Astros futures also came up empty this year, which wasn’t ideal
  • NBA picks went 20-17-0 for -0.24 units (-0.64% ROI)

Unit Sizes / Confidence Levels Analysis

  • 💭 picks went 40-37-1 for -1.09 units (-1.40% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 2-3-0 for -1.20 units (-24.00% ROI)
    • MLB: 8-10-0 for -1.07 units (-5.92% ROI)
    • NFL: 13-10-1 for +1.73 units (+7.21% ROI)
    • NBA: 8-12-0 for -5.42 units (-27.11% ROI)
    • Soccer: 9-2-0 for +4.87 units (+44.23% ROI)
  • 💭💭 picks went 24-19-2 for +0.59 units (+1.31% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 2-4-0 for -2.15 units (-35.79% ROI)
    • MLB: 5-7-0 for -3.34 units (-23.84% ROI)
    • NFL: 6-4-0 for +1.16 units (+11.57% ROI)
    • NBA: 10-4-0 for +4.52 units (+32.27% ROI)
    • Soccer: 1-0-0 for +0.40 units (+40.00% ROI)
  • 💭💭💭 picks went 9-5-1 for +2.42 units (+16.13% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 3-0-0 for +2.65 units (+88.29% ROI)
    • MLB: 2-2-0 for -0.26 units (-5.21% ROI)
    • NFL: 2-2-0 for -0.64 units (-15.89% ROI)
    • NBA: 2-1-0 for +0.67 units (+22.22% ROI)

Summary Of First Three Months

My picks have gone 258-249-20 overall for +0.53 units (0.10% ROI):

  • 💭 picks have gone 83-81-3 for -1.41 units
  • 💭💭 picks have gone 78-70-4 for -4.61 units
  • 💭💭💭 picks have gone 22-13-3 for +5.37 units
  • (I didn’t implement my confidence-levels system for my first month; those picks went 75-85-10 for +1.18 units)

All in all, this picks-sharing thing is going as I expected it would:

  • Disregarding unit sizes, I’m winning just over half of my wagers at just about a breakeven return.
  • To be honest, I’m kind of surprised my 💭 wagers haven’t lost more than 1.41 units. These are the ones that have historically dragged my degenerate fund down.
  • Most of the wagers in the 💭💭 are relatively small too, but there are a good portion of them that are decently-sized as well. I expect these plays to eventually end up in the positive. These are the ones that have historically saved my degenerate fund from its doom.
  • 💭💭💭 picks are the wagers I make with my serious bankroll, and they’re hitting at a 58% clip and returning +14.13% on investment. That’s slightly higher than my historical betting performance, so I’m expecting a little regression moving forward. I’ll be happy if this continues though 🙂
    • If you’re wondering about how my 💭💭💭 picks have performed by sport:
      • NCAAF: 7-2-0 for +4.29 units (+47.62% ROI)
      • MLB: 6-4-1 for +0.85 units (+7.75% ROI)
      • NFL: 7-6-0 for -0.44 units (-2.91% ROI)
      • NBA: 2-1-0 for +0.67 units (+22.22% ROI)

Random Thoughts

  • The way I’m tracking all of my wagers at a flat units-risked for this exercise has made me realize that I place a TON of fucking bets – and the vast majority of them are ill-advised. In fact, a whopping 89.36% (319 of 357) of all of my wagers of my bets are of the 💭 and 💭💭 variety. Brilliant.
  • (Armed with this realization, will I stop and become more disciplined and cut out my 💭 and 💭💭 wagers? Nah, not a chance!)
  • I’m kind of pissed at myself that I lost so many bets on baseball from August-October. Now that the season is over, that ugly red negative-ROI row is going to be on my summary sheet for months (at least). Ditto for the WNBA.
  • Tennis looks ugly right now as well, but just wait until I’m back in my mood to wager on racquet sports. Will that row ever turn green? Stay tuned.

Remember:

I’d like to finish up this first recap article by echoing a few wise words written by my buddy Kieran aka Berryhorse:

  • Everything above and all the content we put out on Sports Thoughts is presented for informational purposes – not for actionable advice.
  • Please remember to always maintain discipline and proper bankroll management.
  • If you are risking so much that your mood swings because of a losing day or week, your bankroll is likely too large of a percent of your net worth and it should decrease and/or your unit size is too large of a percent of your bankroll and it should decrease.
  • If you are relying on some internet stranger to make life-altering amounts of money for you, you should likely reconsider whether or not you should even be managing a sports betting fund at all.

Jerry

loves sports, games of skill, game theory, psychology, blockchain tech, and many other things.

leave a comment: