Jerry’s Picks – Recap #4

Hello everyone,

Four months ago, I started sharing my sports betting picks with the world. If you want to read about how my picks performed over their first month, please read “Jerry’s Picks – Recap #1“. For my second month and an explanation of my confidence-levels system (what the 💭 emojis mean): Jerry’s Picks – Recap #2. For my third month: Jerry’s Picks – Recap #3.

The purpose of this article, as well as that of all the “recap” articles that preceded and will follow it, is to maintain transparency. My goal with everything I do with Sports Thoughts – the articles, the podcast, and whatever else that may come in the future – is to share my honest opinions, thoughts, and experiences regarding sports and betting. That includes being candid about my picks that win and my picks that lose.

So let’s take a big-picture look at how my picks have performed over the fourth month (November 1, 2018 – December 1, 2018). Again, all following calculations have been done under the initial rule I set for this process (every bet I make will be recorded as a separate 1-unit-risked wager, regardless of how much I personally risked on each bet).

The Good

It was a damn good month.

  • The spreadsheet finished its third month in a nice net positive (+23.52 units and +26.73% ROI).
  • NCAAF picks went 9-1-0 for +7.56 units (+75.64% ROI)
  • NFL picks went 12-4-1 for +5.88 units (+34.60% ROI)
  • NBA picks went 38-23-0 for +10.07 units (+16.51% ROI)

The Bad

  • Honestly… none.

Unit Sizes / Confidence Levels Analysis

  • 💭 picks went 29-13-0 for +12.84 units (+30.57% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 4-1-0 for +3.69 units (+73.79% ROI)
    • NFL: 7-2-0 for +3.55 units (+39.40% ROI)
    • NBA: 18-10-0 for +5.61 units (+20.02% ROI)
  • 💭💭 picks went 25-14-1 for +7.36 units (+18.39% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 1-0-0 for +0.38 units (+38.46% ROI)
    • NFL: 5-2-1 for +2.34 units (+29.21% ROI)
    • NBA: 19-12-0 for +4.63 units (+14.95% ROI)
  • 💭💭💭 picks went 5-1-0 for +3.32 units (+55.38% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 4-0-0 for +3.49 units (+87.24% ROI)
    • NBA: 1-1-0 for -0.17 units (-8.33% ROI)

Summary Of First Four Months

My picks have gone 317-277-21 overall for +24.05 units (+3.91% ROI):

  • 💭 picks have gone 112-94-3 for +11.43 units
  • 💭💭 picks have gone 103-84-5 for +2.75 units
  • 💭💭💭 picks have gone 27-14-3 for +8.69 units
  • (I didn’t implement my confidence-levels system for my first month; those picks went 75-85-10 for +1.18 units)

I spent a few good chunks of the past month traveling and didn’t watch as many games as I normally do. The result = I placed far less degenerate wagers than I did from August through October. Probably not coincidentally, November has been by far my best month.

  • After my first three months, I wrote that I was surprised “my 💭 wagers haven’t lost more than 1.41 units” because they were “the ones that have historically dragged my degenerate fund down”. After November, 💭 wagers are not only not further in the red, they’re now +11.43 units in the black.
  • I wrote a month ago that I expected my 💭💭 wagers to “eventually end up in the positive”. They are now +2.75 units in the black.
  • 💭💭💭 picks are the wagers I make with my serious bankroll. After going 5-1 for +3.32 units in November, they are now hitting at a 61% clip and returning +19.75% on investment. 😎


I’d like to finish up this first recap article by echoing a few wise words written by my buddy Kieran aka Berryhorse:

  • Everything above and all the content we put out on Sports Thoughts is presented for informational purposes – not for actionable advice.
  • Please remember to always maintain discipline and proper bankroll management.
  • If you are risking so much that your mood swings because of a losing day or week, your bankroll is likely too large of a percent of your net worth and it should decrease and/or your unit size is too large of a percent of your bankroll and it should decrease.
  • If you are relying on some internet stranger to make life-altering amounts of money for you, you should likely reconsider whether or not you should even be managing a sports betting fund at all.


loves sports, games of skill, game theory, psychology, blockchain tech, and many other things.

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