Jerry’s Picks – Recap #5

Hello everyone,

Five months ago, I started sharing my sports betting picks with the world. If you want to read about how my picks performed over their first month, please read “Jerry’s Picks – Recap #1“. For my second month and an explanation of my confidence-levels system (what the 💭 emojis mean): Jerry’s Picks – Recap #2. For my third month: Jerry’s Picks – Recap #3. Fourth month: Jerry’s Picks – Recap #4.

The purpose of this article, as well as that of all the “recap” articles that preceded and will follow it, is to maintain transparency. My goal with everything I do with Sports Thoughts – the articles, the podcast, and whatever else that may come in the future – is to share my honest opinions, thoughts, and experiences regarding sports and betting. That includes being candid about my picks that win and my picks that lose.

So let’s take a big-picture look at how my picks have performed over the fifth month (December 1, 2018 – December 31, 2018). Again, all following calculations have been done under the initial rule I set for this process (every bet I make will be recorded as a separate 1-unit-risked wager, regardless of how much I personally risked on each bet).

The Good

It was a damn good month (again).

  • The spreadsheet finished its fifth month in a nice net positive (+18.95 units and +37.89% ROI).
  • NCAAF picks went 7-1-0 for +4.45 units (+55.67% ROI)
  • NFL picks went 11-6-1 for +7.03 units (+39.05% ROI)
  • NBA picks went 16-6-0 for +8.46 units (+38.47% ROI)

The Bad

  • Tennis went 0-1-1 for -1.00 units 😬 I’m determined to at least break even in tennis this upcoming year, so we’ll see how that goes…

Unit Sizes / Confidence Levels Analysis

  • 💭 picks went 17-6-2 for +12.03 units (+48.14% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 5-0-0 for +4.42 units (+88.48% ROI)
    • NFL: 6-4-1 for +3.60 units (+32.73% ROI)
    • NBA: 6-1-0 for +5.01 units (+71.57% ROI)
    • Tennis: 0-1-1 for -1.00 units (-50.00% ROI)
  • 💭💭 picks went 14-8-0 for +4.89 units (+22.23% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 1-1-0 for -0.62 units (-30.77% ROI)
    • NFL: 4-2-1 for +2.56 units (+42.65% ROI)
    • NBA: 9-5-0 for +2.95 units (+21.05% ROI)
  • 💭💭💭 picks went 3-0-0 for +2.02 units (+67.41% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 1-0-0 for +0.65 units (+64.52% ROI)
    • NFL: 1-0-0 for +0.87 units (+86.96% ROI)
    • NBA: 1-0-0 for +0.51 units (+50.76% ROI)

The Streak:

Back in August, I went on what I could only describe as “one of the most epic losing runs I’ve ever experienced in all my years of sports betting”: In the eight days between 8/11/18 and 8/18/18, my picks went an incredible 8-2-33 (!!!) for -21.94 units (-51.02% ROI).

In the last two months (November and December), I went on perhaps the most epic winning run I’ve ever experienced in all my years of sports betting: In the 32 days between 11/28/18 and 12/29/18, my picks went an incredible 42-4-1 (!!!) for +35.51 units (+75.54% ROI).

Sports betting is wild.

Summary Of First Five Months


My picks have gone 348-291-23 overall for +40.47 units (+6.11% ROI):

  • 💭 picks have gone 128-100-5 for +21.97 units
  • 💭💭 picks have gone 116-92-5 for +7.25 units
  • 💭💭💭 picks have gone 29-14-3 for +10.07 units
  • (I didn’t implement my confidence-levels system for my first month; those picks went 75-85-10 for +1.18 units)

💭💭💭 picks are the wagers I make with my serious bankroll. After going 3-0 for +3.32 units in November, they are now hitting at a 63% clip and returning +21.89% on investment. 😎

Overall, I’ve rather satisfied with my performance through the first 154 days of sharing free picks – there have been a few ups and downs, but I’m hitting 54.46% of my wagers and returning over 6% over total dollars wagered. Nothing to complain about here!


I’d like to finish up this first recap article by echoing a few wise words written by my buddy Kieran aka Berryhorse:

  • Everything above and all the content we put out on Sports Thoughts is presented for informational purposes – not for actionable advice.
  • Please remember to always maintain discipline and proper bankroll management.
  • If you are risking so much that your mood swings because of a losing day or week, your bankroll is likely too large of a percent of your net worth and it should decrease and/or your unit size is too large of a percent of your bankroll and it should decrease.
  • If you are relying on some internet stranger to make life-altering amounts of money for you, you should likely reconsider whether or not you should even be managing a sports betting fund at all.


loves sports, games of skill, game theory, psychology, blockchain tech, and many other things.

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