Hello everyone,

Six months ago, I started sharing my sports betting picks with the world. If you want to read about how my picks performed over their first month, please read “Jerry’s Picks – Recap #1“. For my second month and an explanation of my confidence-levels system (what the πŸ’­ emojis mean): Jerry’s Picks – Recap #2. For my third month: Jerry’s Picks – Recap #3. Fourth month: Jerry’s Picks – Recap #4. Fifth month: Jerry’s Picks – Recap #5.

The purpose of this article, as well as that of all the “recap” articles that preceded and will follow it, is to maintain transparency. My goal with everything I do with Sports Thoughts – the articles, the podcast, and whatever else that may come in the future – is to share my honest opinions, thoughts, and experiences regarding sports and betting. That includes being candid about my picks that win and my picks that lose.

So let’s take a big-picture look at how my picks have performed over the fifth month (January 1, 2018 – January 31, 2018). Again, all following calculations have been done under the initial rule I set for this process (every bet I make will be recorded as a separate 1-unit-risked wager, regardless of how much I personally risked on each bet).

The Good

None. The worst month ever.

Alright fine, there were a few positive things I guess:

  • Clemson won the National Title, which was huge for me personally (had their futures before the season and doubled down on them in the National Championship Game). NCAAF picks went 5-1-0 for +3.29 units (+54.88% ROI)
  • I’m finally back in the green in Tennis bets overall! The Australian Open was huge for me, capped off by an amazing performance from Novak Djokovic in the final. Tennis picks went 33-20-0 for +17.43 units (+32.89% ROI) in January
  • Despite so many bets losing by the hook or 1, NBA picks went 153-135-3 for +1.45 units (+0.50% ROI)

The Bad

Almost everything. The BIG ones:Β the Saints,Β the Chiefs,Β Duke,Β Penn State. Countless other bets that lost by the hook or by 1 or in the last possession or at the buzzer. Atrocious luck.

  • The spreadsheet finished its sixth month in a net negative (-16.39 units and -3.31% ROI)
  • NFL picks went 23-35-1 for -12.55 units (-21.26% ROI)
  • NCAAB picks went 31-54-1 for -26.02 units (-30.25% ROI)

Unit Sizes / Confidence Levels Analysis

  • πŸ’­ picks went 12-9-0 for +4.71 units (+22.42% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 1-0-0 for +1.10 units (+110.00% ROI)
    • NCAAB: 1-1-0 for +0.65 units (+32.50% ROI)
    • NFL: 6-6-0 for +1.01 units (+8.40% ROI)
    • NBA: 4-1-0 for +2.95 units (+59.00% ROI)
    • Tennis: 0-1-0 for -1.00 units (-100.00% ROI)
  • πŸ’­πŸ’­ picks went 205-208-3 for -14.98 units (-3.60% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 2-1-0 for +0.51 units (+17.14% ROI)
    • NCAAB: 27-42-0 for -17.01 units (-24.66% ROI)
    • NFL: 15-25-0 for -11.25 units (-28.12% ROI)
    • NBA: 129-121-3 for -4.93 units (-1.95% ROI)
    • Tennis: 32-19-0 for +17.70 units (+34.70% ROI)
  • πŸ’­πŸ’­πŸ’­ picks went 28-29-1 for -6.12 units (-10.55% ROI)
    • NCAAF: 2-0-0 for +1.68 units (+83.92% ROI)
    • NCAAB: 3-12-0 for -9.65 units (-64.36% ROI)
    • NFL: 2-4-1 for -2.30 units (-32.91% ROI)
    • NBA: 20-13-0 for +3.42 units (+10.37% ROI)
    • Tennis: 1-0-0 for +0.74 units (+73.53% ROI)

Summary Of First Six Months

(crypto reference: my profit-to-date chart looks kinda like a shitcoin chart, doesn’t it? “pls sir wen moon, mi familie”)

My picks have gone 594-537-27 overall for +24.87 units (+2.15% ROI):

  • πŸ’­ picks have gone 140-109-5 for +26.68 units
  • πŸ’­πŸ’­ picks have gone 321-300-8 for -7.73 units
  • πŸ’­πŸ’­πŸ’­ picks have gone 58-43-4 for +4.75 units
  • (I didn’t implement my confidence-levels system for my first month; those picks went 75-85-10 for +1.18 units)

πŸ’­πŸ’­πŸ’­ picks are the wagers I make with my serious bankroll. After going 28-29-1 for -6.12 units in January (😣), they are now hitting at a 57% clip and (only) returning +4.52% on investment.

Remember:

I’d like to finish up this first recap article by echoing a few wise words written by my buddy Kieran aka Berryhorse:

  • Everything above and all the content we put out on Sports Thoughts is presented for informational purposes – not for actionable advice.
  • Please remember to always maintain discipline and proper bankroll management.
  • If you are risking so much that your mood swings because of a losing day or week, your bankroll is likely too large of a percent of your net worth and it should decrease and/or your unit size is too large of a percent of your bankroll and it should decrease.
  • If you are relying on some internet stranger to make life-altering amounts of money for you, you should likely reconsider whether or not you should even be managing a sports betting fund at all.

Jerry

loves sports, games of skill, game theory, psychology, blockchain tech, and many other things.

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